Bill Oppenheim: Fasig July

Fasig-Tipton kicks off the North American and European yearling sale season with its July Yearling Sale; this year it's again a one-day sale, on Tuesday, July 12, though it will be preceded by a Horses of Racing Age sale on Monday afternoon. As recently as 2007 the Fasig July Yearling Sale grossed $36.4-million and averaged $102,941, but following the World Financial Crisis, which hit the Thoroughbred industry very hard in 2009, between 2011-2014 the sale never grossed more than $15.5-million. Then last year 205 yearlings (61.7% of the 332 catalogued) grossed $20,005,000–an increase of 31% over the previous year–while the $97,585 average was a 4% increase from 2014, but a 40% increase over the 2011 average of $69,890.

For quite a few years Fasig billed the opening part of the sale the “New Sire Showcase,” designed of course to showcase the first yearling progeny of new sires. While not formally sectioning off part of the sale for the progeny of new sires, it's notable that no fewer than 32 sires have yearlings from their first crops catalogued to the sale. These 32 sires account for 135 yearlings, or 39% of the catalogue, and include 10 of the 23 sires which each have six or more yearlings in the sale, including all four of the sires which have double-digit representation.

Eight North American F2015 sires, which have their first yearlings this year, averaged $50,000 or more at the 2015 weanling/2016 'short yearling' (Jan-Feb) sales, according to TDN Instatistics (click here). It was another crop from which the highest entering stud fee in North America was $35,000 (Darley's GI Kentucky Derby and G1 Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom), while three sires kicked off at $25,000: Claiborne's 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner Orb; WinStar's GI Haskell winner Paynter (Awesome Again, and a 3/4-brother to Calumet's 2013 GI Preakness winner Oxbow, who debuted at $20,000 at Taylor Made); and Adena Springs's five-time turf GI winner Point of Entry, who was bred and raced by the Phipps Stable and is by the great turf sire Dynaformer. Orb, with 18 weanlings sold, led the group with an average of $120,277, with Animal Kingdom second, averaging $107,454 for 11 sold. Paynter proved popular, with 17 weanlings averaging $86,470, ahead of Point of Entry, who had three average $81,673, but from 10 offered. These were followed by Taylor Made's Graydar (Unbridled's Song, $65,851); Oxbow (Awesome Again, $64,250, from his crop sired at Taylor Made); Coolmore Ashford's unbeaten champion 2012 2-year-old Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday, $63,196); and Hill 'n' Dale Farm's Violence (Medaglia D'Oro, $59,434, from 38 sold).

The leading sire by number of yearlings catalogued for Fasig July is Graydar, a son of Unbridled's Song who started out at, and still stands at, Taylor Made Farm. A $260,000 Fasig Florida 2-year-old trained by Todd Pletcher for Twin Creeks Farm, Graydar only made six starts, going 2-for-3 over a mile as a 3-year-old, then coming back at four to win three graded races from three starts: the nine-furlong GI Donn H. (Beyer 109) and GII New Orleans H. (Beyer 105), and closing out with a wire-to-wire win in the GII Kelso (Beyer 103) at Belmont Park. He first appeared on our commercial radar at the 2014 mixed sales, when 21 mares in foal to him averaged $85,523, prompting the observation that Taylor Made and Twin Creeks had done, I thought, an especially noteworthy job of attracting the right kind of mares to the horse. His 27 weanlings sold last year, as mentioned, averaged $65,851, so the stage is set, and the selection of more yearlings by him than any other sire in this sale suggests his team are giving Graydar the best possible shot for sire success.

Pin Oak Farm's Josephine Abercrombie is one of the most respected breeders in Kentucky, and her homebred Alternation, by Distorted Humor out of a Seattle Slew mare who herself won over $550,000 and hails from Pin Oak's family tracing to Strike A Pose (by Never Bend's son, Iron Ruler), has 11 yearlings catalogued at Fasig. This has been quite a successful sire family, having produced the likes of Broken Vow, Peaks And Valleys, Where's The Ring, and Service Stripe, as well as George Strawbridge's champion racemare Forever Together. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, Alternation won nine of 19 starts over four seasons, including Belmont's GII Peter Pan S. as a 3-year-old, and the GIII Razorback H., the GII Oaklawn H., and the GIII Pimlico Special in consecutive races at four. He stands for just $7,500 at Pin Oak but must have some pretty impressive specimens to merit inclusion of 11 yearlings by him in this spot.

Two sires have 10 yearlings catalogued each. Hill 'n' Dale's Violence, a $600,000 yearling by Medaglia D'Oro who has been called by more than one judge the best-looking stallion in Kentucky, had more weanlings/short yearlings sold last year (38) than any other Kentucky stallion, and is absolutely guaranteed to be a hot first-year sire. He went three-for-three as a 2-year-old for Todd Pletcher, winning the GII Nashua S, in New York, then shipping west to win the GI Cashcall Futurity, the same race Into Mischief won before he became such a good sire. Violence was beaten a half-length by Orb in the GII Fountain of Youth in his first and only start at three, then injury intervened and he was retired. By contrast, Spendthrift's Flat Out (Flatter), the other first-year sire with 10 catalogued, ran 29 times through the age of seven, with nine wins, 19 in-the-money (first three) finishes, and earnings of over $3.6-million. He won the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup (10f) twice, the GII Suburban H. (9f) twice, and the GI Cigar Mile once, as well as placing in eight more Grade I races. He ran Beyers of 107+ ten times, with a high of Beyer 116. Two-turn dirt sires aren't everybody's cup of tea, but his daddy was a son of A.P. Indy and Flat Out had a lot of virtues, including soundness and durability.

The aforementioned GI Preakness winner Oxbow has eight first-crop yearlings at Fasig. WinStar stallions Paynter (Oxbow's three-quarters brother) and Overanalyze (Dixie Union) have seven each, as do Spendthrift's Liaison (Indian Charlie) and Castletown Lyons's classy sprinter Justin Philip (First Samurai). Spendthrift's Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor) has six. Another 15 sires have five or more catalogued each, headed by none other than Coolmore Ashford's Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), with nine catalogued.